Friday, 06 September 2013
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has maintained its estimate of shorn wool production for 2012/13 at 350mkg.
- The Committee’s second forecast of 2013/14 production remains unchanged at 345mkg, down 1.4 per cent from the 2012/13 total. The forecast decline reflects expected decrease in sheep numbers due to increased sheep turn-off, and a reduction in average fleece weights due to seasonal conditions.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has forecast Australian wool production to decline to 345 million greasy kilograms for the 2013/14 season, down by 1.4 per cent from the 2012/13 season total of 350 mkg.
Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson commented that “the slight decrease in seasonal production reflects two major factors – an increase in sheep turn-off for slaughter in 2012/13, which has reduced season-opening sheep numbers for 2013/14; and an expected reduction in average fleece weight resulting from the dry seasonal conditions that were experienced in many woolgrowing regions in the first half of 2013”.
Mr Pattinson added that “results from the recent joint MLA and AWI production survey indicate that grower intent has shifted back slightly from flock growth, toward maintenance of existing sheep numbers”.
Regionally, declines in 2013/14 wool production are forecast for New South Wales and Queensland which outweigh expected slight increases in wool production in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.
| 表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要 | |||||
| 參數 | 2011/12 年度最終預算 | 2012/13 August Estimate | 按年變動 (%) | 2013/14 Second Forecast | 按年變動 (%) |
| 開幕羊群數量 (百萬頭) |
73.1 | 74.7 | 2.1% | 73.9 | -1.0% |
| 剪毛羊數量 (百萬頭) |
76.4 | 78.8 | 3.1% | 78.4 | -0.4% |
| 每頭平均切割量 (公斤/頭) |
4.48 |
4.43 | -1.1% | 4.39 | -0.8% |
| 剪羊毛生產 (mkg 油脂) |
342 | 350 | 2.3% | 345 | -1.4% |
註：由於四捨五入的關係，總計可能不相加。
|
||||||||
| QLD | 新南威爾士州 | VIC | TAS | SA | WA | 國家 | ||
| 2011/12 年度最終預算 | 13.7 | 125.5 | 76.9 | 10.3 | 54.0 | 68.6 | 350 | |
| 2012/13 四月預測 | 12.5 | 120.0 | 77.7 | 10.4 | 54.9 | 69.0 | 345 | |
| 按年變動 (%) | -8.6% |
-4.4% |
1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.4% | |
註：由於四捨五入的關係，總計可能不相加。
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括經紀人、種植者、私人協約商人、州農業部代表以及澳洲羊毛檢驗局。.
數據和資料也來自 AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES、AWTA 和澳洲肉類與牲畜協會。.
