Monday, 30 April 2018
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn wool production in 2017/18 will reach 338 mkg greasy. This is a 0.6% decline from the levels in 2016/17 and is largely the result of more difficult seasonal conditions in many of the major wool growing areas. This has resulted in lower fleece weights. It comes despite the strong wool market conditions which are encouraging producers to retain sheep.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that Australian shorn wool production in 2017/18 will reach 338 mkg greasy. This is a 0.6% decline from the levels in 2016/17 and is largely the result of more difficult seasonal conditions in many of the major wool growing areas. This has resulted in lower fleece weights. It comes despite the strong wool market conditions which are encouraging producers to retain sheep.
- The Committee’s first forecast for 2018/19 is for shorn wool production to be 333 mkg greasy, a further fall of 1.7%, due to a combination of slightly lower wool cuts per head and lower number of sheep shorn. This early forecast assumes normal seasonal conditions in 2018/19.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has revised its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2017/18 season to 338 million kilograms greasy, a 0.6% decline on the 2016/17 season and lower than its forecast at its December 2017 meeting.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that “seasonal conditions in the major sheep producing areas across Australia have been very dry through Summer and the first part of Autumn, which has resulted in lower than expected fleece weights. While Tasmania and Western Victoria have experienced good seasonal conditions, some of the major sheep producing regions in New South Wales, eastern Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland have been very dry. Wool production reductions are greatest in WA (-7.3%), Queensland and NSW while Victoria showed the largest increase (+ 5.7%) with slight increases in SA and Tasmania
” While the Committee expected that fleece weights would pull back as the season progressed, the decline has been more than anticipated. This is reflected in the drop in wool tests by AWTA in February and March”.
“Furthermore, the high wool prices encouraged producers to shear their sheep earlier and the volume of prem shorn wool has increased. This has contributed to the recent decline in wool test volumes as wool which normally would have been delivered in recent months was delivered earlier in the season”.
“The weight of wool tested by AWTA in the nine months of 2017/18 is now on par with the level in 2016/17, after being 5% higher to November. The Committee expected that wool volumes would slow in the second half of the season, but this slowdown has been more than anticipated. The Committee expects this to continue in the remaining three months of the season.”
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the coming 2018/19 season is for production to be 333 mkg greasy, a 1.7% decline on the 2017/18 forecast. This fall reflects the impact of the dry seasonal conditions recently and is the result of a small fall in both the number of sheep shorn and in average wool cuts per head.
The Committee noted that for the 2017/18 season to March, the AWTA test data showed a significant decline in the weight of wool tested of 16.5 microns and finer, as well as a decline in the volume of 20 to 26 micron wool. Volumes have increased for other micron ranges. The average mean fibre diameter for the season to March was 21.1 micron, up by 0.1 micron. Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales all recorded a lift in mean fibre diameter for the season, while Western Australia has seen a fall of 0.6 micron. The mean fibre diameter was steady in Queensland and South Australia. The average staple length across Australia has fallen by 1.8 mm to 87mm, with all states recording shorter staple length for the season to date.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要
|
參數 |
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
變更 |
2018/19 |
變更 |
|
Sheep numbers shorn (million head) |
74.3 |
76.0 |
+2.3% |
75.0 |
-1.3% |
|
Average cut per head (kg/head) |
4.58 |
4.45 |
-2.8% |
4.43 |
-0.4% |
|
剪羊毛生產 |
340 |
338 |
-0.6% |
333 |
-1.7% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state – 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18
|
mkg 油脂 |
新南威爾士州 |
VIC |
WA |
SA |
TAS |
QLD |
全國 |
|
2015/16 Final Estimate (mkg) |
122.9 |
66.1 |
65.2 |
54.8 |
9.1 |
6.9 |
325 |
|
2016/17 Final Estimate (mkg) |
126.0 |
67.4 |
71.1 |
57.9 |
9.2 |
8.5 |
340 |
|
按年變動 % |
+2.6% |
+2.0% |
+9.1% |
+5.6% |
+1.5% |
+23.0% |
+4.7% |
|
2017/18 Fourth Forecast (mkg) |
125.1 |
71.2 |
65.9 |
58.5 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
338 |
|
按年變動 % |
-0.8% |
+5.7% |
-7.3% |
+1.0% |
+1.4% |
-2.6% |
-0.6% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括種植者、經紀商、私人協商商、州農業部代表以及澳洲羊毛檢驗局。此外，AWTA、AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES 以及澳大利亞肉畜協會也提供了數據和建議。.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts from 27th April 2018.
發佈者：
Marius Cuming
Australian Wool Innovation, Corporate Communications
電子郵件： [email protected]
Mobile: +61 400 305 716