Friday, 16 December 2016
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that shorn wool production will lift by 2.2% to 332 mkg greasy in 2016/17.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that shorn wool production will lift by 2.2% to 332 mkg greasy in 2016/17.This reflects a 2.7% increase in average wool cut per head because of excellent season conditions and an abundance of feed, which more than offsets the small decline expected in the number of sheep shorn.
- This increase is from the Committee’s final estimate of shorn wool production for 2015/16 at 325 mkg. This is 6.2% below the 2014/15 production level.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has revised its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2016/17 season to 332 million kilograms greasy, a 2.2% increase on its final estimate for the 2015/16 season.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that “almost all major sheep producing areas across Australia are reported to be experiencing very good to excellent season conditions and an abundance of feed after a very wet Spring. This is expected to result in even better average wool cuts per head in 2016/17 than the Committee anticipated in August.
“Some regions, notably in Victoria, in the Tablelands of New South Wales and in Tasmania, have experienced a rather tough winter after seeing very dry conditions up until May, so fleece weights are only now starting to improve. The full benefit of the improved seasons is expected to be seen during autumn shearing. Elsewhere it seems that fleece weights have already improved and this should continue as the season progresses.”
By state, the Committee predicts that shorn wool production will increase in New South Wales, Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland. The increase in Queensland is particularly welcome after three consecutive years of declines and in part reflects sheep returning to the state after the breaking of the long drought. Production in Victoria is expected to be steady, with an improvement in the second half of the season while production in Tasmania is predicted to be slightly lower.
The AWPFC’s final estimate of shorn wool production for the 2015/16 season is 325 mkg, a decline of 6.2% over the 2014/15 previous season. As noted in August, this increase is in line with, but less than, the decline in the weight of wool tested by AWTA for 2015/16. This difference arises as some of the increase in wool tests, receivals and auction offerings late in the 2014/15 season was due to the release of on-farm stocks. This stock was not available for sale in 2015/16.
The Committee noted that for the 2016/17 season to November, the AWTA test data showed a significant decline in the weight of wool tested between 16.6 to 18.5 micron and wool broader than 26.5 micron. There was an increase in the volumes of wool for all micron ranges between 18.6 micron and 23.5 micron. The mean fibre diameter for Australia in 2016/17 to November was 20.7 microns, the same as in 2015/16.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量估計與預測摘要
| 參數 | 2014/15 決賽 預算 |
2015/16 決賽 預算 |
變更 年比年 (%) |
2016/17 Third 預測 |
變更 年比年 (%) |
| 開幕羊 (百萬頭) | 72.6 | 70.9 | -2.4% | 68.7 | -3.1% |
| 剪毛羊數量 (百萬頭) | 76.9 | 73.4 | -4.6% | 73.0 | -0.5% |
| 每頭平均切割量 (公斤/頭) | 4.50 | 4.43 | -1.6% | 4.55 | +2.7% |
| 剪羊毛生產 (mkg 油脂) |
346 | 325 | -6.2% | 332 | +2.2% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
Table 2: Total shorn wool production by state – 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17
| mkg 油脂 | 新南威爾士州 | VIC | WA | SA | TAS | QLD | 國家 |
| 2014/15 年度最終預算 (公斤) | 130.0 | 72.6 | 67.2 | 56.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 346 |
| 2015/16 Final Estimate (公斤) | 122.9 | 66.1 | 65.2 | 54.8 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 325 |
| 按年變動 % | -5.5% | -9.0% | -3.0% | -3.1% | -15.9% | -24.0% | -6.2% |
| 2016/17 Third Forecast (公斤) | 124.4 | 66.1 | 67.6 | 56.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 332 |
| 按年變動 % | +1.3% | 0.0% | +3.7% | +3.7% | -0.9% | +15.5% | +2.2% |
註： 由於四捨五入的關係，合計數可能與實際數不符。.
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括種植者、經紀商、私人協商商、州農業部代表以及澳洲羊毛檢驗局。此外，AWTA、AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES 以及澳大利亞肉畜協會也提供了數據和建議。.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts from 23rd December 2016.