Monday, 15 April 2024
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2023/24 season. The fourth forecast is for production of 324 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 estimate and a 4 Mkg greasy downward revision of the December forecast.
- The latest Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s forecast of shorn wool production for 2023/24 is 324 Mkg greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 season estimate.
- The number of sheep shorn is forecast at 71.6 million head, up 0.1% due to held over lambs.
- Shorn wool production is expected to increase in New South Wales (up 2.7%) and South Australia (up 3.4%) but decrease in all other states.
- Average cut per head is forecast to reduce to 4.53 kg greasy (down 2.2%) due to dry seasonal conditions since the December forecast.
- The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2024/25 season is 306 Mkg greasy, a 5.8% decrease on the 2023/24 forecast.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2023/24 season. The fourth forecast is for production of 324 million kilograms (Mkg) greasy, 1.0% lower than the 2022/23 estimate and a 4 Mkg greasy downward revision of the December forecast.
Committee Chairman, Stephen Hill said that “the revised April forecast reflects the varied seasonal conditions across the key wool growing regions of Australia and the impact on numbers of sheep shorn and average cut per head. Held over lambs and older breeding ewes remain in the flock as sheep meat prices stay relatively low. The number of sheep shorn during 2023/24 is expected to remain at 71.6 million near the 2022/23 season level.”
“New South Wales is forecast to shear 26.6 million head this season (up 2.7%) despite the varied seasonal conditions across the state as the key wool producing regions in the central west and southeast have had a reasonable season to date with recent welcome widespread rain. The number of sheep shorn is expected to increase in South Australia due to favourable seasonal conditions in the pastoral regions but will remain either steady or decrease in other states.”
Average cut per head is expected to be 4.53 kg greasy, down 2.2% compared to 2022/23. AWTA key test data for the season to date show no change in mean fibre diameter (20.8 microns) or vegetable matter (2.2%), a 2.1 mm decrease in staple length to 87.5 mm and a 0.6% reduction in yield to 65.8%.
AWTA wool test volumes to the end of March 2024 were down by 2.9% on a year-on-year basis. First-hand offered wool at auction to the end of March 2024 (week 39) was up 1.4% compared with the same period in 2022/23.
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2024/25 season is 306 Mkg greasy, a 5.8% decrease on the 2023/24 forecast.
表 1：澳洲羊毛產量摘要
|
2022/23 預算 |
2023/24 第四頁 forecast |
變更 年比年 (%) |
2024/25 第一 forecast |
變更 年比年 (%) |
|
|
剪毛羊數量 (百萬頭) |
71.5 |
71.6 |
0.1% |
67.3 |
-6.0% |
|
Average cut per head (greasy kg/head) |
4.59 |
4.53 |
-2.2% |
4.55 |
0.0% |
|
剪羊毛生產 (Mkg 油脂) |
328 |
324 |
-1.0% |
306 |
-5.8% |
表 2：各州的羊毛總產量
|
季節 |
新南威爾士州 |
VIC |
WA |
SA |
TAS |
QLD |
澳洲 |
|
2021/22 (Mkg 油脂) |
113.3 |
73.9 |
61.2 |
56.1 |
10.3 |
8.9 |
324 |
|
2022/23 (Mkg 油脂) |
119.0 |
70.0 |
60.6 |
56.7 |
10.2 |
11.3 |
328 |
|
按年變動 (%) |
5.0% |
-5.3% |
-1.0% |
1.1% |
-1.0% |
27.0% |
1.3% |
|
2023/24 第四頁 預測 (Mkg 油脂) |
122.2 |
68.7 |
55.6 |
58.6 |
9.3 |
10.1 |
324 |
|
按年變動 (%) |
2.7% |
-1.9% |
-8.3% |
3.4% |
-8.8% |
-10.6% |
0.0% |
Table 3: AWTA key test data for 2022/23 and 2023/24 (July to March)
|
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
變更 年比年 |
|
|
平均纖維直徑 (µm) |
20.8 |
20.8 |
0 |
|
釘長 (毫米) |
89.6 |
87.5 |
– 2.1 |
|
釘強度 (N/ktex) |
34.5 |
34.9 |
+ 0.4 |
|
產量 (%) |
66.4 |
65.8 |
– 0.6 |
|
植物性物質 (%) |
2.2 |
2.2 |
0 |
全國委員會參考了六個州委員會的建議，每個州委員會的成員包括種植者、經紀商、私人協約商人、羊群懷孕掃描員、州農業部代表和澳洲羊毛檢驗局。此外，還從 AWEX、羊毛出口商、澳大利亞統計局、ABARES 以及澳大利亞肉類和家畜協會獲取了數據和意見。.
The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2024.
完整的預測報告可在 AWI 網站上取得，網址為 www.wool.com/forecasts from 24th April 2024.
發佈者：
Kevin Wilde
澳洲羊毛創新，諮詢與參與總經理