2020年5月1日，星期五
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production in 2019/20 is 281 mkg greasy. This is a 6.3% decline on the 300 mkg estimate for 2018/19 as lowsheep numbers and the enduring impact of drought continue to constrain production.
The Committee’s first forecast for 2020/21 is for shorn wool production to be 276 mkg greasy, a fall of 1.6% compared with the current season. Low sheep numbers, opportunistic cropping in mixed farming regions and uncertainty surrounding wool prices are expected to contribute to a slowrecovery in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook in many wool production areas.
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s fourth forecast of shorn wool production in 2019/20 is 281 mkg greasy. This is a 6.3% decline on the 300 mkg estimate for 2018/19 as low sheep numbers and the enduring impact of drought continue to constrain production.
- The Committee’s first forecast for 2020/21 is for shorn wool production to be 276 mkg greasy, a fall of 1.6% compared with the current season. Low sheep numbers, opportunistic cropping in mixed farming regions and uncertainty surrounding wool prices are expected to contribute to a slowrecovery in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook in many wool production areas.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2019/20 season. This fourth forecast is for production to be 281 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, a 6.3% decline on the estimate of 300 mkg greasy in 2018/19 (Table 1).
Relatively widespread rain has been welcomed through south eastern Australia and along the eastern seaboard in the first quarter of 2020. Western Australia remains dry with on-farm water supplies at low levels and a sharp increase in the number of interstate sheep transfers.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson noted that “Strong returns for mutton and lamb along with high sheep replacement costs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on global demand for wool and on woolprices may slow recovery in wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook”.
The number of sheep shorn in Australia during 2019/20 is forecast to fall by 5.7% to 68.4 million. Sheep shorn numbers are expected to remain at 2018/19 levels in South Australia and Tasmania, but decline in all other states with Queensland (down 13.6%), New South Wales (down 9.7%), Victoria (down 6.6%) and Western Australia (down 2.1%).
The average wool cut per head is forecast to decline by 0.5% nationally to 4.11 kg greasy for the 2019/20 season. In Queensland, shorn wool production is forecast to fall by 12.3%, South Australia down 9.0%, New South Wales down 6.8%, Tasmania down 6.7%, Victoria down 5.4% and Western Australia down 3.5% (Table2).
AWTA wool test volumes to the end of March 2020 were down by 5.5% year-on-year while first-hand offered wool at auction to the end of week 42 was down 17.9%. The decline in the latter is partly due to the recent downward movement in wool prices with smaller auction offerings and high pre-sale withdrawal evident in recent months. ABS wool receivals from July to the end of December were down 13.2% compared with the same months in 2018/19.
The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2020/21 season is 276 mkg greasy, a 1.7% decline on the 2019/20 forecast. The Committee expects that low sheep numbers will continue to limit any increase in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook across many wool producing regions of the country.
表 1：澳大利亚羊毛产量估计和预测摘要
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
表2：各邦2017/18、2018/19和2019/20年度羊毛总产量
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
全国委员会采纳了六个州委员会的建议，每个州委员会的成员包括种植户、经纪人、私人协议贸易商、绵羊妊娠扫描仪操作员、州农业部门代表以及澳大利亚羊毛检测局的代表。此外，数据和意见还来自澳大利亚羊毛出口商协会（AWEX）、羊毛出口商、澳大利亚统计局、澳大利亚农业资源经济局（ABARES）以及澳大利亚肉类及畜牧业协会。.
The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2020.
The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com/forecasts from 8th May 2020.
发布者：
凯文-王尔德
Australian Wool Innovation,
Media Relations Manager