2015/16年度羊毛产量继续下降

星期五，2016 年 4 月 01 日

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) confirmed its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2015/16 season at 322 million kilograms greasy, a 7.0% decline on the 2014/15 season, as predicted at its meeting in December.

	The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee confirmed its December forecast of a 7% decline in shorn wool production in 2015/16 to 322 mkg. This reflects a combination of both fewer sheep shorn than in 2014/15 and a decline in average fleece weights due to seasonal conditions. The Committee’s first forecast for 2016/17 is for shorn wool production to be 320 mkg greasy.

 

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) confirmed its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2015/16 season at 322 million kilograms greasy, a 7.0% decline on the 2014/15 season, as predicted at its meeting in December.

Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson said that “as the Committee expected in December, the dry seasonal conditions in Spring in many major sheep producing areas have resulted in lower average wool cuts per head this season. The hot, dry conditions over summer in a number of regions is likely to further exacerbate this during the autumn shearings and has also reportedly resulted in increased turn-off of sheep. This is particularly in evidence in Victoria, Tasmania, south-east South Australia and much of the main sheep producing regions in Queensland.

“Some regions, such as areas in Western Australia, have seen better rainfall mainly from intense summer storms which has relieved stock water shortages but pasture conditions remain a concern. In New South Wales, the largest producing state, conditions are mixed, with some regions seeing improvements but others reporting drier conditions and lower fleece weights than a year ago.”

The 7% decline compares with a 5.6% decline in the weight of wool tested by AWTA in the first eight months of 2015/16. The Committee expects that AWTA tests will fall away more rapidly in the last quarter of the season compared to the last quarter of 2014/15.

The AWPFC’s first forecast of shorn wool production for the coming 2016/17 season is for production to be 320 mkg greasy.

The Committee noted that for the 2015/16 season to February, AWTA test data showed a significant increase in the weight of wool between 16.5 micron and finer, only a small decline in the volumes of 17 micron wool but a significant decline in volumes of wool between 21.6 and 23.5 microns. Volumes of other micron categories mostly fell by around 6%-9%. The mean fibre diameter for Australia to February was 21.1 microns, the same as in 2014/15.

表 1：澳大利亚羊毛产量估计和预测摘要

参数	2014/15 决赛 估算	2015/16 第四届 预测	改变 同比 (%)	2016/17 首次预测	改变 同比 (%)
被剪毛的绵羊数量 (百万头)	72.6	72.8	-5.4%	71.9	-1.1%
每头平均切割量 (公斤/头）	4.50	4.43	-1.6%	4.45	+0.4%
羊毛生产 油腻	346	322	-7.0%	320	-0.7%

注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.

表 2：2014/15 年度和 2015/16 年度各州的羊毛总产量

mkg greasy	昆士兰州	新南威尔士州	维多利亚州	TAS	SA	西澳大利亚	全国
2014/15 年度最终估计数 （千克）	9.1	130.0	72.6	10.8	56.5	67.2	346
2015/16 Fourth Forecast （千克）	6.4	120.8	66.1	9.0	54.8	65.2	322
同比变化 %	-30.2%	-7.1%	-9.0%	-17.0%	-3.1%	-3.0%	-7.0%

注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.

全国委员会听取了六个州委员会的建议，每个州委员会的成员包括种植者、经纪人、私人协议商人、州农业部代表以及澳大利亚羊毛检测局。此外，澳大利亚羊毛出口商协会（AWEX）、羊毛出口商、澳大利亚统计局（ABARES）、澳大利亚羊毛贸易协会（AWTA）以及澳大利亚肉类和畜牧业协会（Meat and Livestock Australia）也提供了数据和意见。.

预测报告全文将在 AWI 网站上公布，网址为 www.wool.com/forecasts from 15th April 2016.