Monday, 31 August 2026
- 2026/27 wool production is forecast at 249.3 Mkg greasy, down 1.8% year-on-year, representing an upward revision of 5.4 MKg from the April forecast.
- Sheep shorn numbers expected to remain historically low at 56.3 million head.
- Producer confidence has rebounded strongly, supported by improved wool market conditions.
- Seasonal conditions have improved across South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia, but remain mixed in New South Wales and challenging in parts of Tasmania and Queensland.
- The national flock is stabilising, with future growth expected to come from breeding and greater retention of breeding stock, subject to favourable seasonal conditions.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s (AWPFC) second forecast of shorn wool production for the 2026/27 season is 249.3 Mkg greasy, representing a 1.8% decrease on the estimated 253.9 Mkg greasy produced in 2025/26. Sheep shorn numbers are forecast to remain historically low at 56.3 million head, down 4.7% on 2025/26.
Committee Chairman Stephen Hill said, “While the national flock appears to have stabilised, any near-term growth is likely to be driven by on-farm breeding programs rather than purchases of replacement ewes, as breeding stock prices remain high. Further spring rainfall will be critical to improving feed and water availability and supporting flock rebuilding intentions across key wool-producing regions. At the same time, ongoing cost pressures and the drier seasonal outlook are likely to temper producer confidence and encourage cautious decision-making in the months ahead.”
The May 2026 Sheep Producer Intentions Survey indicated producer sentiment towards the wool industry rebounded strongly, with net sentiment rising 80 points year-on-year. The improvement was driven by stronger wool market conditions and a shift in producer focus from risk management and flock reduction towards stock retention and flock rebuilding. However, seasonal conditions and the weather outlook remained the dominant factors influencing on-farm decision making.
Mr Hill added that “Seasonal conditions have improved significantly since our April forecast, with widespread rainfall across South Australia, Victoria and key wool-producing regions in Western Australia boosting feed availability and producer confidence. However, conditions remain mixed in New South Wales, Australia’s largest wool-producing state, while Tasmania and parts of Queensland continue to face seasonal challenges”.
The outlook for 2026/27 follows an estimated shorn wool production of 253.9 Mkg greasy in 2025/26, which was 9.4% lower than in 2024/25 and 1.5 Mkg below the April forecast.
The Committee has estimated year-on-year declines in shorn wool production across all states in 2025/26. These declines range from 16.5% in South Australia (down to 39.5 Mkg greasy) to 4.2% in Western Australia (down to 43.0 Mkg greasy). New South Wales produced 98.6 Mkg greasy (down 10.4%), Victoria 55.9 Mkg greasy (down 6.1%), Tasmania 8.5 Mkg greasy (down 7.6%) and Queensland 8.3 Mkg greasy (down 9.8%).
Average cut per head was estimated at 4.29 kg greasy, 3.6% lower than 2024/25. AWTA Key Test Data for the 2025/26 season show no change in mean fibre diameter or vegetable matter (20.5 µm and 2.3% respectively), a 2 mm increase in staple length to 87.3 mm with reductions in staple strength (down 0.7 N/ktex to 33.0 N/ktex) and yield (down 0.5% to 63.6%).
AWTA wool test volumes for the 2025/26 season were 271.7 Mkg greasy, down 8.0% year-on-year. First-hand wool offered at auction during 2025/26 was down 1.7% at 253.9 Mkg greasy.
Sheep slaughter for 2025/26 was down 31% to 8.04 million head with lamb slaughter at 22.07 million head (down 15%) compared to 2024/25. The 2025/26 sheep and lamb slaughter were both lower than the five-year average by 5% and 6% respectively.
The reduction in sheep and lamb turn-off during 2025/26 suggests the national flock is stabilising, while improved producer sentiment provides the potential for future growth. Seasonal conditions during spring and early summer will remain a key determinant of flock rebuilding activity. Despite ongoing cost pressures, wool producers appear increasingly focused on rebuilding flocks through on-farm breeding programs and greater retention of breeding stock.
AWPFC 采纳了 ABS 于 2025 年 12 月发布的羊群数量估计，其中包括从 2016/17 年开始修订的全国羊群数量数据，反映了范围的变化，即涵盖澳大利亚所有为商业利益而饲养的绵羊。.
表 1：澳大利亚羊毛生产概况
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
表 2：各州的羊毛总产量
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
Table 3: AWTA key test data for 2024/25 and 2025/26 (Full season)
全国委员会采纳了六个州委员会的建议，每个州委员会的成员包括种植户、经纪人、私人协议贸易商、绵羊妊娠扫描仪操作员、州农业部门代表以及澳大利亚羊毛检测局的代表。此外，数据和意见还来自澳大利亚羊毛贸易协会（AWTA）、澳大利亚羊毛出口商协会（AWEX）、羊毛出口商、澳大利亚统计局、澳大利亚农业资源经济局（ABARES）、气象局以及澳大利亚肉类及畜牧业协会。.
The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-December 2026.
预测报告全文将在 AWI 网站上公布，网址为 www.wool.com/forecasts from 4 September 2026.