Friday, 29 August 2014
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s second forecast for 2014/15 has revised shorn wool production to 328 mkg, down 3.7% from 2013/14 levels. This decrease reflects the reduction in sheep numbers due to the high slaughter rates in 2013/14 even though average fleece weights are expected to increase marginally.
Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that “the fall in shorn wool production reflects a decline in the 2014/15 opening sheep numbers and the expected number of sheep to be shorn, which were affected by the high sheep slaughter rates in 2013/14”.
Mr Pattinson added that “Queensland and northern New South Wales shorn wool production is expected to be the most affected due to the ongoing tough seasonal conditions, while South Australia has seen a recovery as a result of the good season in that state”. Nationally, average fleece weight is expected to rise marginally.
Regionally, the expected declines in 2014/15 wool production for New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, outweigh the expected increase in South Australia.
The Committee also finalised the 2013/14 shorn wool production estimate at 341mkg, in line with ABS wool receival data and AWTA test data.
表 1：澳大利亚羊毛产量估计和预测摘要
|
参数 |
2012/13 |
2013/14 |
改变 |
2014/15 |
改变 |
|
Opening sheep numbers (百万头) |
74.7 |
75.5 |
+1.2% |
71.7 |
-5.0% |
|
被剪毛的绵羊数量 (百万头) |
78.8 |
78.0 |
-1.0% |
74.3 |
-4.7% |
|
每头平均切割量 (公斤/头） |
4.47 |
4.37 |
-2.3% |
4.42 |
+1.1% |
|
羊毛生产 |
352 |
341 |
-3.3% |
328 |
-3.7% |
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state – 2013/14 and 2014/15 forecasts
|
昆士兰州 |
新南威尔士州 |
维多利亚州 |
TAS |
SA |
西澳大利亚 |
全国 |
|
|
2013/14 年度最终估计数 |
10.8 |
125.3 |
70.5 |
10.2 |
52.0 |
71.8 |
341 |
|
2014/15 August Forecast |
8.1 |
118.8 |
68.5 |
10.1 |
53.0 |
69.6 |
328 |
|
YOY Change % |
-25.5% |
-5.2% |
-2.9% |
-0.6% |
+1.9% |
-3.0% |
-3.7% |
注：由于四舍五入，总数可能不相加。.
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input were also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
预测报告全文将在 AWI 网站上公布，网址为 www.wool.com/forecasts from 5th of September 2014.