La production de laine australienne devrait diminuer en 2014/15

Vendredi 29 août 2014

The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee’s second forecast for 2014/15 has revised shorn wool production to 328 mkg, down 3.7% from 2013/14 levels. This decrease reflects the reduction in sheep numbers due to the high slaughter rates in 2013/14 even though average fleece weights are expected to increase marginally.

 

Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson commented that “the fall in shorn wool production reflects a decline in the 2014/15 opening sheep numbers and the expected number of sheep to be shorn, which were affected by the high sheep slaughter rates in 2013/14”.

Mr Pattinson added that “Queensland and northern New South Wales shorn wool production is expected to be the most affected due to the ongoing tough seasonal conditions, while South Australia has seen a recovery as a result of the good season in that state”. Nationally, average fleece weight is expected to rise marginally.

Regionally, the expected declines in 2014/15 wool production for New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania, outweigh the expected increase in South Australia.

The Committee also finalised the 2013/14 shorn wool production estimate at 341mkg, in line with ABS wool receival data and AWTA test data.

Tableau 1 : Résumé des estimations et des prévisions relatives à la production de laine en Australie

Paramètres	2012/13 Finale	2013/14 Finale Estimation	Changer en glissement annuel (%)	2014/15 Third Forecast	Changer en glissement annuel (%)
Nombre d'ovins à l'ouverture (millions de têtes)	74.7	75.5	+1.2%	71.7	–5.0%
Nombre de moutons tondus (millions de têtes)	78.8	78.0	–1.0%	74.3	–4.7%
Coupe moyenne par tête (kg/tête)	4.47	4.37	–2.3%	4.42	+1.1%
Production de laine tondue (mkg gras)	352	341	–3.3%	328	–3.7%

Note : Les chiffres ayant été arrondis, les totaux peuvent ne pas correspondre à la somme des composantes.

Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state – 2013/14 and 2014/15 forecasts

	QLD	NGS	VIC	TAS	SA	WA	NATIONAL
Estimation finale 2013/14	10.8	125.3	70.5	10.2	52.0	71.8	341
2014/15 August Forecast	8.1	118.8	68.5	10.1	53.0	69.6	328
YOY Change %	-25.5%	-5.2%	-2.9%	-0.6%	+1.9%	-3.0%	-3.7%

Note : Les chiffres ayant été arrondis, les totaux peuvent ne pas correspondre à la somme des composantes.

The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.

Data and input were also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.

Le rapport prévisionnel complet sera disponible sur le site web de l'AWI à l'adresse suivante www.wool.com/forecasts from 5th of September 2014.