Australian wool production expected to ease slightly in 2013/14
- 2013年9月06日, 星期五
- The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has maintained its estimate of shorn wool production for 2012/13 at 350mkg.
- The Committee's second forecast of 2013/14 production remains unchanged at 345mkg, down 1.4 per cent from the 2012/13 total. The forecast decline reflects expected decrease in sheep numbers due to increased sheep turn-off, and a reduction in average fleece weights due to seasonal conditions.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has forecast Australian wool production to decline to 345 million greasy kilograms for the 2013/14 season, down by 1.4 per cent from the 2012/13 season total of 350 mkg.
Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson commented that "the slight decrease in seasonal production reflects two major factors - an increase in sheep turn-off for slaughter in 2012/13, which has reduced season-opening sheep numbers for 2013/14; and an expected reduction in average fleece weight resulting from the dry seasonal conditions that were experienced in many woolgrowing regions in the first half of 2013".
Mr Pattinson added that "results from the recent joint MLA and AWI production survey indicate that grower intent has shifted back slightly from flock growth, toward maintenance of existing sheep numbers".
Regionally, declines in 2013/14 wool production are forecast for New South Wales and Queensland which outweigh expected slight increases in wool production in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and Western Australia.
| Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia | |||||
| Parameter | 2011/12 Final Estimate | 2012/13 August Estimate | Change y-o-y (%) | 2013/14 Second Forecast | Change y-o-y (%) |
| Opening sheep numbers (million head) |
73.1 | 74.7 | 2.1% | 73.9 | -1.0% |
| Sheep numbers shorn (million head) |
76.4 | 78.8 | 3.1% | 78.4 | -0.4% |
| Average cut per head (kg/head) |
4.48 |
4.43 | -1.1% | 4.39 | -0.8% |
| Shorn wool production (mkg greasy) |
342 | 350 | 2.3% | 345 | -1.4% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
|
||||||||
| QLD | NSW | VIC | TAS | SA | WA | National | ||
| 2011/12 Final Estimate | 13.7 | 125.5 | 76.9 | 10.3 | 54.0 | 68.6 | 350 | |
| 2012/13 April Forecast | 12.5 | 120.0 | 77.7 | 10.4 | 54.9 | 69.0 | 345 | |
| Change y-o-y (%) | -8.6% |
-4.4% |
1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.4% | |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
Wool Production Forecast Report (Sep 2013)