{"id":2471,"date":"2020-05-01T08:23:05","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T08:23:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/awtawooltesting.swim.net.au\/news\/improved-seasonal-conditions-but-low-sheep-numbers-limit-recovery-in-shorn-wool-production\/"},"modified":"2020-05-01T08:23:05","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T08:23:05","slug":"improved-seasonal-conditions-but-low-sheep-numbers-limit-recovery-in-shorn-wool-production","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/awtawooltesting.com.au\/zh\/news\/improved-seasonal-conditions-but-low-sheep-numbers-limit-recovery-in-shorn-wool-production\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5b63\u8282\u6761\u4ef6\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6570\u91cf\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u526a\u6bdb\u7f8a\u6bdb\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u6062\u590d\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee\u2019s fourth forecast of shorn wool production in 2019\/20 is 281 mkg greasy. This is a 6.3% decline on the 300 mkg estimate for 2018\/19 as lowsheep numbers and the enduring impact of drought continue to constrain production.<\/p>\n<p>The Committee\u2019s first forecast for 2020\/21 is for shorn wool production to be 276 mkg greasy, a fall of 1.6% compared with the current season. Low sheep numbers, opportunistic cropping in mixed farming regions and uncertainty surrounding wool prices are expected to contribute to a slowrecovery in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook in many wool production areas.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee\u2019s fourth forecast of shorn wool production in 2019\/20 is 281 mkg greasy. This is a 6.3% decline on the 300 mkg estimate for 2018\/19 as low sheep numbers and the enduring impact of drought continue to constrain production.<\/li>\n<li>The Committee\u2019s first forecast for 2020\/21 is for shorn wool production to be 276 mkg greasy, a fall of 1.6% compared with the current season. Low sheep numbers, opportunistic cropping in mixed farming regions and uncertainty surrounding wool prices are expected to contribute to a slowrecovery in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook in many wool production areas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has updated its forecast of shorn wool production for the 2019\/20 season. This fourth forecast is for production to be 281 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, a 6.3% decline on the estimate of 300 mkg greasy in 2018\/19 (Table 1).<\/p>\n<p>Relatively widespread rain has been welcomed through south eastern Australia and along the eastern seaboard in the first quarter of 2020. Western Australia remains dry with on-farm water supplies at low levels and a sharp increase in the number of interstate sheep transfers.<\/p>\n<p>Committee Chairman, Russell Pattinson noted that \u201cStrong returns for mutton and lamb along with high sheep replacement costs and uncertainty surrounding the impact of COVID-19 on global demand for wool and on woolprices may slow recovery in wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The number of sheep shorn in Australia during 2019\/20 is forecast to fall by 5.7% to 68.4 million. Sheep shorn numbers are expected to remain at 2018\/19 levels in South Australia and Tasmania, but decline in all other states with Queensland (down 13.6%), New South Wales (down 9.7%), Victoria (down 6.6%) and Western Australia (down 2.1%).<\/p>\n<p>The average wool cut per head is forecast to decline by 0.5% nationally to 4.11 kg greasy for the 2019\/20 season. In Queensland, shorn wool production is forecast to fall by 12.3%, South Australia down 9.0%, New South Wales down 6.8%, Tasmania down 6.7%, Victoria down 5.4% and Western Australia down 3.5% (Table2).<\/p>\n<p>AWTA wool test volumes to the end of March 2020 were down by 5.5% year-on-year while first-hand offered wool at auction to the end of week 42 was down 17.9%. The decline in the latter is partly due to the recent downward movement in wool prices with smaller auction offerings and high pre-sale withdrawal evident in recent months. ABS wool receivals from July to the end of December were down 13.2% compared with the same months in 2018\/19.<\/p>\n<p>The AWPFC\u2019s first forecast of shorn wool production for the 2020\/21 season is 276 mkg greasy, a 1.7% decline on the 2019\/20 forecast. The Committee expects that low sheep numbers will continue to limit any increase in shorn wool production despite the favourable seasonal outlook across many wool producing regions of the country.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8868 1\uff1a\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7f8a\u6bdb\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table border=\"1\" style=\"height: 272px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #bec2cb;\">\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p><strong>\u53c2\u6570 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2018<\/strong><strong>\/<\/strong><strong>19 <br \/>Final Estimate <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2019\/20<br \/><\/strong><strong style=\"caret-color: auto;\">\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong><em>\u6539\u53d8 <br \/>\u540c\u6bd4\uff08%\uff09 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2020\/21 <br \/>\u7b2c\u4e00&nbsp;<\/strong><strong style=\"caret-color: auto;\">\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong><em>\u6539\u53d8 <br \/>\u540c\u6bd4\uff08%\uff09 <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u88ab\u526a\u6bdb\u7684\u7ef5\u7f8a\u6570\u91cf <\/strong>(\u767e\u4e07\u5934)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;72.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;68.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;-5.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;65.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-4.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u6bcf\u5934\u5e73\u5747\u5207\u5272\u91cf <\/strong>(\u516c\u65a4\/\u5934\uff09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;4.13<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;4.11<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;-0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;4.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;2.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">&nbsp;<strong>\u7f8a\u6bdb\u751f\u4ea7 <\/strong>\u6cb9\u817b<\/td>\n<td>300<\/td>\n<td>281<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">-6.3%<\/td>\n<td>276<\/td>\n<td>-1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u6ce8\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u56db\u820d\u4e94\u5165\uff0c\u603b\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u76f8\u52a0\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u88682\uff1a\u5404\u90a62017\/18\u30012018\/19\u548c2019\/20\u5e74\u5ea6\u7f8a\u6bdb\u603b\u4ea7\u91cf<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table border=\"1\" style=\"border: 2px inherit #000000;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background-color: #d5d7dd;\">\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p><strong>mkg greasy <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u65b0\u5357\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u5dde <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u7ef4\u591a\u5229\u4e9a\u5dde <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u897f\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>SA <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>TAS <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u6606\u58eb\u5170\u5dde <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u5168\u56fd <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2017\/18 \u5e74\u5ea6\u6700\u7ec8\u6982\u7b97 <\/strong>\uff08\u5343\u514b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;125.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;73.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;65.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;59.5<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;9.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;8.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;341<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2018\/19 Final Estimate <\/strong>\uff08\u5343\u514b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;99.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;66.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;62.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;54.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;9.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;8.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;300<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>\u540c\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316 % <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-21.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-9.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-4.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;-8.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-3.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-2.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;-12.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>2019\/20 F<\/strong><strong>ourth <\/strong><strong>\u9884\u6d4b <\/strong>\uff08\u5343\u514b\uff09<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;92.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;63.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;60.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<p>&nbsp;49.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;8.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;7.1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>&nbsp;281<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"2\">&nbsp;<strong>\u540c\u6bd4\u53d8\u5316 %<\/strong><\/td>\n<td>-6.8%<\/td>\n<td>-5.4%<\/td>\n<td>-3.5%<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"3\">&nbsp;-9.0%<\/td>\n<td>&nbsp;-6.7%<\/td>\n<td>-12.3%<\/td>\n<td>-6.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u6ce8\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u56db\u820d\u4e94\u5165\uff0c\u603b\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u76f8\u52a0\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u5168\u56fd\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u91c7\u7eb3\u4e86\u516d\u4e2a\u5dde\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u5dde\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u6210\u5458\u5305\u62ec\u79cd\u690d\u6237\u3001\u7ecf\u7eaa\u4eba\u3001\u79c1\u4eba\u534f\u8bae\u8d38\u6613\u5546\u3001\u7ef5\u7f8a\u598a\u5a20\u626b\u63cf\u4eea\u64cd\u4f5c\u5458\u3001\u5dde\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8\u4ee3\u8868\u4ee5\u53ca\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7f8a\u6bdb\u68c0\u6d4b\u5c40\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u548c\u610f\u89c1\u8fd8\u6765\u81ea\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7f8a\u6bdb\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u534f\u4f1a\uff08AWEX\uff09\u3001\u7f8a\u6bdb\u51fa\u53e3\u5546\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7edf\u8ba1\u5c40\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u519c\u4e1a\u8d44\u6e90\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c40\uff08ABARES\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u8089\u7c7b\u53ca\u755c\u7267\u4e1a\u534f\u4f1a\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>The state and national Committees will next meet in mid-August 2020.<\/p>\n<p>The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website at www.wool.com\/forecasts from 8th May 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u53d1\u5e03\u8005\uff1a <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u51ef\u6587-\u738b\u5c14\u5fb7<\/p>\n<p>Australian Wool Innovation,<\/p>\n<p>Media Relations Manager<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u7f8a\u6bdb\u751f\u4ea7\u9884\u6d4b\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5bf92019\/20\u5e74\u5ea6\u526a\u6bdb\u7f8a\u6bdb\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b\u4e3a2.81\u4ebf\u516c\u65a4\u539f\u6bdb\u3002\u8fd9\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u76843\u4ebf\u516c\u65a4\u51cf\u5c11\u4e866.31\u4ebf\u516c\u65a4\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"class_list":["post-2471","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - 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